自今年年初以来，美国天然气价格已暴跌46%，现在在用钻机数似乎也将随之减少。
在欧洲，天然气价格仍然比2022年之前高得多，但一个暖冬已经让欧洲大陆储气库填满了天然气。
目前天然气需求不足可能会影响产量，当需求开始飙升时，这可能会导致未来的天然气供应问题。
中国石化新闻网讯据油价网2023年2月13日报道，2月早些时候，美国天然气基准价格近两年来首次跌破每百万英热单位3美元。据预测，至少在今年年中之前，美国的气价将维持在每百万英热单位3美元以下。
天然气价格暴跌已经迫使天然气生产商缩减生产计划，而此时欧洲正开始为夏季天然气储备补充季节做准备，预计届时天然气需求将激增。
自今年年初以来，美国的天然气价格已暴跌46%。据路透社援引Liberty Energy和Helmerich&Payne的报道，2022年上半年，美国页岩气储量丰富地区的在用钻机数增加了48%，但现在这一趋势即将逆转，因为油田服务提供商警告称，他们将把钻井设备搬出气田。
去年在用钻机数激增是完全可以理解的：欧洲开辟了一个全新的液化天然气进口市场，美国天然气的价格最终平均每百万英热单位达到了5.46美元。据路透社报道，这是十多年来这种大宗商品的最高价格。当然，钻井公司为此将增加钻机。
但随后温暖的冬天为欧洲提供了急需的休整时间，这改变了一切。由于储库的储罐已满，需求低于季节性平均水平，欧洲停止了如此多的美国液化天然气进口。美国的冬天在很大程度上是温暖的，这也使得美国国内液化天然气需求下降。因此，价格下跌了。但这可能会给未来带来麻烦。
在欧洲，天然气价格仍然高度波动，远高于2022年之前的水平。2月初，在经历了一次大幅下滑之后，由于预测欧洲大陆大部分地区将迎来一股寒流，气价再次飙升。德国能源市场监管机构负责人克劳斯·穆勒再次警告德国人节省的天然气太少。
在亚洲，有迹象表明天然气需求正在复苏，这在很大程度上要归功于天然气销售价格的下降。随着全球在去年一系列新冠疫情封锁后恢复正常，预计这一需求将进一步增长。然而，这可能不足以将价格推至去年的水平，因为来自欧洲的需求可能仍然不温不火。
冬天即将结束，欧洲大陆的天然气库存量比往年这个时候要多。这是去年11月到今年1月欧洲的好天气造成的结果。这意味着欧洲在今年春季和夏季只需要购买更少的天然气来补充库存。
摩根士丹利表示，欧洲高于正常水平的天然气库存量意味着，明年冬天出现天然气供应缺口的风险远低于此前的预期。据彭博新闻社报道，摩根士丹利的分析师们实际上预计，欧洲有足够的天然气储备，以抵消管道流量的下降，并为2023/2024年冬季提供足够的天然气库存。
摩根士丹利还表示，今年夏天对欧洲的天然气供应将比去年减少180亿立方米，而到3月底前，欧洲在主要欧盟成员国的天然气库存量将达到290亿立方米。这一数字似乎是基于在天然气供应中断和北溪管道遭到破坏后对欧洲的天然气出口。
然而，所有这些都意味着美国的天然气价格将在更长的时间内保持低位，如果价格继续走低，天然气产量也会下降。如果今年欧洲的天气没有去年那么好，气价可能会再次飙升，因为即使是最灵活的美国天然气生产商也无法在几小时内对天然气需求的急剧变化做出反应。
对美国天然气产量的预测已经被大幅修正。Enverus预计今年美国天然气日产量将从30亿立方英尺降至17亿立方英尺。美国能源信息署预计，今年美国天然气价格将下降，这也意味着天然气产量将下降。然而，美国能源信息署在其最新的短期能源展望中也预测，今年美国液化天然气出口将增长11%。这可能取决于来自欧洲的强劲需求。
与此同时，交易商似乎预计天然气市场将更加紧张。据路透社报道，2024年初交货期的天然气期货交易价格每百万英热单位超过4美元。当然，这种情况在今年可能会发生变化，但这确实表明，市场上的一些人正准备从不久之后天然气供应收紧的可能性中获益。
然而，气价上涨潜力可能有限。美国能源信息署在短期能源展望报告中指出，预计工业部门的国内天然气需求将下降，因为活动低迷，这本身就是通胀失控的后果。
欧洲的情况更加严峻，去年过高的天然气价格促使许多企业削减业务和规模。这意味着，去年鼓励液化天然气投资者推进新产能计划导致的天然气价格状况将不会重演。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Low Natural Gas Prices Could Cause A Supply Crunch
· Since the start of the year, U.S. natural gas prices have slumped by 46 percent, and now the number of active drilling rigs looks set to decline in response.
· In Europe, natural gas prices remain much higher than before 2022, but a mild winter has allowed the continent to fill up its storage.
· The lack of demand for natural gas currently is likely to hurt production, which could cause a problem going forward when demand begins to spike.
Earlier this month, the benchmark price for U.S. natural gas fell below $3 per million British thermal units for the first time in almost two years. Forecasts are that it will remain below $3 until at least the middle of the year.
The natural gas price drop is already forcing producers to taper production plans just as Europe begins to plan for its summer gas storage refill season when demand is expected to surge.
Since the start of the year, U.S. natural gas prices have slumped by 46 percent. The number of drilling rigs in gas-rich parts of the shale patch rose by 48 percent in the first half of 2022 but now this trend is about to reverse as oilfield service providers warn they will be moving equipment out of gas fields, Reuters reports, citing Liberty Energy and Helmerich & Payne.
The surge in drilling rig additions last year was quite understandable: a whole new LNG export mark opened up in Europe, and prices for U.S. natural gas ended up averaging $5.46 per mmBtu for the year. This was the highest price for the commodity in more than ten years, according to Reuters. Of course drillers would add rigs.
But then the warm winter that provided a much-needed break for Europe changed things. With storage sites full to the brim and demand lower than the seasonal average, Europe stopped taking so much U.S. LNG. Winter in the United States itself was, for the most part, warm, keeping domestic demand down as well. Prices, consequently, fell. But this may spell trouble for the future.
In Europe, gas prices remain highly volatile and much higher than they were before 2022. Early this month, after a substantial slump, these jumped once again on forecasts for a cold spell across much of the continent. Germany’s chief of the energy market watchdog, Klaus Mueller, once again warned Germans were saving too little gas.
In Asia, there are signs of recovering demand, thanks largely to the lower prices at which gas is being sold. With the whole world returning to normal after a series of Covid lockdowns last year, this demand is expected to increase even further. Yet it might not be enough to push prices to where they were last year because demand from Europe may remain lukewarm.
The continent is ending winter with more gas in storage than it usually has at this time of the year. This is the result of Europe’s luck with the weather from November to January. And this means it would need to buy less gas to replenish that storage in the spring and summer.
According to Morgan Stanley, Europe’s higher-than-usual levels of gas in storage means that the risk of a supply gap for next winter is much lower than previously suspected. The bank’s analysts, as quoted by Bloomberg, actually expect there to be enough gas in storage in Europe to offset the drop in pipeline flows and secure enough gas in storage for winter 2023/24.
The gas supplies to Europe this summer will be 18 billion cubic meters lower than they were last year, Morgan Stanley said, and Europe will have 29 billion cubic meters of gas in key EU members by the end of March. The figures appear to be based on gas exports to Europe after the flow cuts and the sabotage of Nord Stream.
Yet all this means that U.S. gas prices will remain lower for longer, and if prices remain lower, so will production. And if this year Europe doesn’t have last year’s luck with the weather, prices could surge once again because even the most nimble U.S. gas producer cannot respond to a sharp change in gas demand in a matter of hours.
Forecasts about U.S. gas production are already being revised dramatically. Enverus expects growth of 1.7 billion cubic feet daily this year, down from 3 billion cubic feet. The Energy Information Administration expects a lower price for U.S. natural gas this year, which also suggests lower production. Yet the EIA also forecast an 11-percent increase in U.S. LNG exports this year in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. It probably hinges on strong demand from Europe.
Meanwhile, traders seem to be anticipating a tighter gas market. According to Reuters, gas futures with delivery dates in early 2024 are trading at over $4 per mmBtu. This could, of course, change over the course of the year, but it does suggest some on the market are preparing to benefit from the possibility of a gas supply tightening before too long.
The upside potential, however, may be limited. The EIA noted in its STEO that it expected lower domestic gas demand from the industrial sector because of subdued activity, itself the consequence of runaway inflation.
The picture is even grimmer in Europe, where exorbitant gas prices last year prompted many businesses to curb activity and downsize. And this means that there will hardly be a repeat of last year’s gas prices situation that encouraged LNG investors to forge ahead with new capacity plans.
